Probability, Conditioning and Bayes
Kolmogorov's axioms and their consequences, the addition, multiplication and complement rules, conditional probability, independence of two and of several events (pairwise versus mutual), independent versus mutually exclusive, total probability and Bayes theorem with a probability tree and the base-rate effect, classical counting probabilities, the two-children puzzle with its assumptions, and four solved past questions on independence, Bayes, draws without replacement and a Polya urn.
